Ferguson vs. Reichert · October 21, 2024
Ferguson with large lead in Washington
ActiVote’s October 21, 2024 Washington Governor poll shows that the Democratic candidate Bob Ferguson is ahead of his Republican opponent Dave Reichert by 16.2%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 14, 2024 and October 20, 2024 with a median field date of October 2.
Please note that in this poll the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
Reichert leads among rural voters, those aged 50-64, Republicans and those with some college. Ferguson leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Ferguson and Reichert among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of Washington, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.
Ferguson has support from the left and moderate left completely locked up: 95% support him. Reichert has the full support of the right and moderate right (92%). Centrists are almost evenly divided.
Comparisons
In the 2020 Washington Governor election, Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee beat his Republican challenger Loren Culp by 13.4%. In the 2016 Washington Governor election, incumbent Jay Inslee beat his Republican challenger Bill Bryant by 8.8%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 21, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Bob Ferguson | Dave Reichert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 33% | 27% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 22% | 91% | 9% | |
| Center | 16% | 17% | 49% | 51% | |
| Moderate Right | 11% | 15% | 14% | 86% | |
| Right | 13% | 18% | 1% | 99% | |
| Region | rural | 31% | 32% | 48% | 52% |
| suburban | 29% | 29% | 63% | 37% | |
| urban | 40% | 39% | 63% | 37% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 15% | 71% | 29% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 33% | 62% | 38% | |
| 50-64 | 27% | 24% | 49% | 51% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 28% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 29% | 52% | 66% | 34% |
| M | 71% | 48% | 50% | 50% | |
| Party | D | 65% | 53% | 87% | 13% |
| R | 19% | 31% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 15% | 16% | 58% | 42% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 90% | 80% | 56% | 44% |
| Black | 1% | 1% | 100% | 0% | |
| Latino | 6% | 9% | 61% | 39% | |
| Income | Low | 10% | 12% | 63% | 37% |
| Middle | 41% | 39% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 48% | 49% | 60% | 40% | |
| Education | HS | 34% | 27% | 51% | 49% |
| Some C | 10% | 28% | 48% | 52% | |
| BSC+ | 56% | 46% | 69% | 31% |