Kaine vs. Cao · October 15, 2024
Kaine Maintains Lead in Virginia
ActiVote’s October 15, 2024 Virginia U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic incumbent Senator Tim Kaine leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao by 11.8%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 9, 2024 and October 14, 2024 with a median field date of September 26.
Please note that Virginia does not register voters by party affiliation. Therefore, our voter file contains a statistically derived estimate of who is Democrat or Republican. As a result, the percentage of people seemingly deviating from their party (about 20%) is higher than it would be in a state where we have party registration from the official voter file.
Cao leads among rural voters, men, Republicans, Whites, Latinos, low and middle income voters and those with at most a High school education. Kaine leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Kaine and Cao among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light blue state of Virginia the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.
Both dominate their core constituencies: Kaine takes 95% of the left and moderate left voters, while Cao takes 89% of the right and moderate right voters. Kain has a 12% lead among centrists. The overall lead for Kaine is the result of the larger number of left leaning voters (44%) than right leaning voters (39%) in Virginia.
Comparisons
In November 2020, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner beat his Republican challenger Daniel Gade by 12.1%. In November 2018, Tim Kaine beat his Republican challenger Corey Stewart by 16.0%. In our previous poll of September 1st, Caine led by 10.6%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 15, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Tim Kaine | Hung Cao |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 22% | 26% | 97% | 3% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 18% | 92% | 8% | |
| Center | 19% | 17% | 56% | 44% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 17% | 16% | 84% | |
| Right | 18% | 22% | 6% | 94% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 33% | 41% | 59% |
| suburban | 43% | 36% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 30% | 31% | 74% | 26% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 22% | 16% | 68% | 32% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 30% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 18% | 28% | 58% | 42% | |
| Gender | F | 35% | 54% | 65% | 35% |
| M | 65% | 46% | 45% | 55% | |
| Party | D | 62% | 50% | 77% | 23% |
| R | 32% | 36% | 19% | 81% | |
| I | 6% | 14% | 76% | 24% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 74% | 70% | 49% | 51% |
| Black | 16% | 15% | 71% | 29% | |
| Latino | 6% | 7% | 49% | 51% | |
| Income | Low | 12% | 15% | 49% | 51% |
| Middle | 29% | 36% | 47% | 53% | |
| High | 59% | 50% | 64% | 36% | |
| Education | HS | 18% | 29% | 39% | 61% |
| Some C | 11% | 21% | 64% | 36% | |
| BSC+ | 70% | 50% | 62% | 38% |