Kaine vs. Cao · September 1, 2024
Kaine Leads Comfortably in Virginia
ActiVote’s September 1, 2024 Virginia U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic incumbent Senator Tim Kaine leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao by 10.6%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 24, 2024 and September 1, 2024 with a median field date of August 12.
Cao leads among men, Republicans, Independents, Whites and those with middle incomes. Kaine leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Kaine and Cao among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light blue state of Virginia the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.
Both dominate their core constituencies: Kaine takes 96% of the left and moderate left voters, while Cao takes 92% of the right and moderate right voters. Kains has a 12% lead among centrists. The overall lead for Kaine is the result of the larger number of left leaning voters (44%) than right leaning voters (39%) in Virginia.
Comparisons
In November 2020, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner beat his Republican challenger Daniel Gade by 12.1%. In November 2018, Tim Kaine beat his Republican challenger Corey Stewart by 16.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · September 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Tim Kaine | Hung Cao |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 32% | 26% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 18% | 92% | 8% | |
| Center | 18% | 17% | 56% | 44% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 17% | 12% | 88% | |
| Right | 11% | 22% | 4% | 96% | |
| Region | rural | 34% | 33% | 50% | 50% |
| suburban | 36% | 36% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 30% | 31% | 63% | 37% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 16% | 68% | 32% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 30% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 28% | 55% | 45% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 54% | 61% | 39% |
| M | 66% | 46% | 49% | 51% | |
| Party | D | 63% | 50% | 82% | 18% |
| R | 30% | 36% | 23% | 77% | |
| I | 7% | 14% | 43% | 57% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 76% | 70% | 47% | 53% |
| Black | 13% | 15% | 68% | 32% | |
| Latino | 4% | 7% | 77% | 23% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 15% | 58% | 42% |
| Middle | 33% | 36% | 42% | 58% | |
| High | 53% | 50% | 64% | 36% | |
| Education | HS | 11% | 29% | 55% | 45% |
| Some C | 17% | 21% | 50% | 50% | |
| BSC+ | 72% | 50% | 57% | 43% |