Virginia · U.S. Senate · 2024
Kaine vs. Cao
54.7%
Tim Kaine (D)
45.3%
Hung Cao (R)
D+9.4%
Final poll · published October 29, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
D+8.9% Tim Kaine won
Our final poll (D+9.4%) · error:
D+0.5%
How the race moved (3 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
Left
100%
Moderate Left
95%
Center
54%
46%
Moderate Right
92%
Right
98%
Tim KaineHung Cao
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Tim Kaine | Hung Cao |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 26% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 18% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 20% | 17% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 17% | 8% | 92% | |
| Right | 13% | 22% | 2% | 98% | |
| Region | rural | 29% | 33% | 46% | 54% |
| suburban | 41% | 36% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 29% | 31% | 66% | 34% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 20% | 16% | 63% | 37% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 30% | 54% | 46% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 26% | 51% | 49% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 28% | 55% | 45% | |
| Gender | F | 35% | 54% | 59% | 41% |
| M | 65% | 46% | 50% | 50% | |
| Party | D | 60% | 50% | 79% | 21% |
| R | 31% | 36% | 24% | 76% | |
| I | 9% | 14% | 47% | 53% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 75% | 70% | 48% | 52% |
| Black | 15% | 15% | 72% | 28% | |
| Latino | 5% | 7% | 56% | 44% | |
| Income | Low | 13% | 15% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 32% | 36% | 45% | 55% | |
| High | 55% | 50% | 64% | 36% | |
| Education | HS | 18% | 29% | 57% | 43% |
| Some C | 13% | 21% | 51% | 49% | |
| BSC+ | 69% | 50% | 55% | 45% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Kaine | Cao | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2024 | 54.7% | 45.3% | D+9.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+8.9% | D+0.5% |
| October 15, 2024 | 55.9% | 44.1% | D+11.8% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+8.9% | D+2.9% |
| September 1, 2024 | 55.3% | 44.7% | D+10.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+8.9% | D+1.7% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Virginia.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.