Harris vs. Trump · October 29, 2024
Harris With Smaller Lead in Virginia
ActiVote’s October 29, 2024 Virginia Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 8.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 2, 2024 and October 28, 2024 with a median field date of October 15.
Trump leads among rural voters, those aged 50-64, men, Republicans and Independents, White voters, middle income voters, and those with some college. Harris leads in all other categories.
Both take just over 75% of those deemed affiliation with their party: please note that in Virginia party affiliation is not part of the voter rolls, which makes our estimate of party affiliation less accurate in Virginia than in the 30 states that do have it as part of the voter rolls.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-blue state of Virginia, there are more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 97% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 97% of his (right and moderate right). Harris has a significant lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10.1% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 5.3%. Our September 18, 2024 poll found Harris +10.4%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 26% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 18% | 7% | 93% | |
| Center | 20% | 17% | 43% | 57% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 17% | 94% | 6% | |
| Right | 14% | 22% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 28% | 33% | 56% | 44% |
| suburban | 42% | 36% | 47% | 53% | |
| urban | 30% | 31% | 33% | 67% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 20% | 16% | 36% | 64% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 30% | 44% | 56% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 26% | 53% | 47% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 28% | 46% | 54% | |
| Gender | F | 33% | 54% | 39% | 61% |
| M | 67% | 46% | 54% | 46% | |
| Party | D | 59% | 50% | 21% | 79% |
| R | 32% | 36% | 76% | 24% | |
| I | 10% | 14% | 55% | 45% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 77% | 70% | 52% | 48% |
| Black | 14% | 15% | 33% | 67% | |
| Latino | 4% | 7% | 49% | 51% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 15% | 36% | 64% |
| Middle | 31% | 36% | 57% | 43% | |
| High | 55% | 50% | 41% | 59% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 29% | 42% | 58% |
| Some C | 12% | 21% | 51% | 49% | |
| BSC+ | 68% | 50% | 46% | 54% |