Harris vs. Trump · September 17, 2024
Harris Has Double Digit Lead in Virginia
ActiVote’s September 18, 2024 Virginia Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 10.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 19, 2024 and September 17, 2024 with a median field date of September 2.
Please note that the crosstabs below are provided with the sole purpose of giving insight into the nature of our poll, such as the targets we weigh to per category and the difference between unweighted and weighted cohorts. The crosstabs are not necessarily an accurate indication of exact expected vote shares in each category due to the 10%+ margin-of-error per subcategory in a poll of just 400 likely voters. E.g., a listed vote share of 55% could, in approximately 1 out of 20 polls, really be as little as 45%, or as much as 65%.
Trump leads among rural voters, those aged 50-64, Republicans and Independents, White voters, and middle income voters. He ties among those with at most a High School degree, while Harris leads in all other categories.
Both take just over 80% of those deemed affiliation with their party: please note that in Virginia party affiliation is not part of the voter rolls, which makes our estimate of party affiliation less accurate in Virginia than in the 30 states that do have it as part of the voter rolls.
The crosstab value for Black voters is surprising: Harris' vote share is (much) lower than expected, and could be a statistical outlier given the relatively small size of the subsample.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-blue state of Virginia, there are more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 94% of his (right and moderate right). Harris has a significant lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10.1% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 5.3%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · September 17, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 26% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 18% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 21% | 17% | 40% | 60% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 17% | 89% | 11% | |
| Right | 16% | 22% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 30% | 33% | 54% | 46% |
| suburban | 41% | 36% | 46% | 54% | |
| urban | 29% | 31% | 34% | 66% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 20% | 16% | 24% | 76% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 30% | 47% | 53% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 15% | 28% | 47% | 53% | |
| Gender | F | 31% | 54% | 41% | 59% |
| M | 69% | 46% | 49% | 51% | |
| Party | D | 58% | 50% | 16% | 84% |
| R | 33% | 36% | 81% | 19% | |
| I | 8% | 14% | 53% | 47% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 77% | 70% | 53% | 47% |
| Black | 17% | 15% | 38% | 62% | |
| Latino | 3% | 7% | 20% | 80% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 15% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 31% | 36% | 68% | 32% | |
| High | 55% | 50% | 28% | 72% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 29% | 50% | 50% |
| Some C | 14% | 21% | 49% | 51% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 50% | 40% | 60% |