Virginia · President · 2024
Harris vs. Trump
54.1%
Kamala Harris (D)
45.9%
Donald Trump (R)
D+8.2%
Final poll · published October 29, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
D+5.8% Kamala Harris won
Our final poll (D+8.2%) · error:
D+2.4%
How the race moved (2 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
Left
100%
Moderate Left
93%
Center
43%
57%
Moderate Right
94%
Right
100%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 26% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 18% | 7% | 93% | |
| Center | 20% | 17% | 43% | 57% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 17% | 94% | 6% | |
| Right | 14% | 22% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 28% | 33% | 56% | 44% |
| suburban | 42% | 36% | 47% | 53% | |
| urban | 30% | 31% | 33% | 67% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 20% | 16% | 36% | 64% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 30% | 44% | 56% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 26% | 53% | 47% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 28% | 46% | 54% | |
| Gender | F | 33% | 54% | 39% | 61% |
| M | 67% | 46% | 54% | 46% | |
| Party | D | 59% | 50% | 21% | 79% |
| R | 32% | 36% | 76% | 24% | |
| I | 10% | 14% | 55% | 45% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 77% | 70% | 52% | 48% |
| Black | 14% | 15% | 33% | 67% | |
| Latino | 4% | 7% | 49% | 51% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 15% | 36% | 64% |
| Middle | 31% | 36% | 57% | 43% | |
| High | 55% | 50% | 41% | 59% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 29% | 42% | 58% |
| Some C | 12% | 21% | 51% | 49% | |
| BSC+ | 68% | 50% | 46% | 54% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2024 | 45.9% | 54.1% | D+8.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+5.8% | D+2.4% |
| September 17, 2024 | 44.8% | 55.2% | D+10.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+5.8% | D+4.6% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Virginia.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.