Blacklock vs. Jones · October 1, 2024
Republicans Extend Lead in State-Level Texas Races
ActiVote’s October 1, 2024 Texas state-wide polls find that the Republican candidates are ahead in all seven polled races:
The polls were in the field between August 30 and September 30 (median field date of September 14). The polls were among 400 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 4.9%.
We first present an overview where we look at some similarities and differences between the 7 polls, before presenting the details for each of the polls.
Overview
On average, the Republican candidates are ahead of their Democratic opponents by 10.6%, with only small differences: the smallest lead is 8.0% while the largest lead is 12.8%. In our previous poll (August 11), the Republican candidates were ahead by 8.6%.
When looking at the (summarized) crosstabs, there are various trends visible.
All Republican candidates lead among rural and suburban voters. They lead among those aged 30-49 and 65+, while approximately tie among those aged 50-64. They lead among men, and approximately tie among women. They lead among Republicans and Independents, among White voters, middle and high income earners, and among all income levels.
A surprising outcome is the Black vote, where David Schenck wins 52%, while on average the Republican candidates get about 30% of the Black vote. It is possible that this large variation is partly the result of the relatively small unweighted (6%) and weighted (8%) sample size of Blacks in these polls.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Jimmy Blacklock | DaSean Jones |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Region | rural | 30% | 31% | 67% | 33% |
| suburban | 37% | 34% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 33% | 35% | 50% | 50% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 17% | 44% | 56% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 32% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 19% | 25% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 27% | 67% | 33% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 54% | 52% | 48% |
| M | 62% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 49% | 44% | 24% | 76% |
| R | 41% | 45% | 86% | 14% | |
| I | 10% | 10% | 61% | 39% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 73% | 59% | 69% | 31% |
| Black | 5% | 8% | 27% | 73% | |
| Latino | 17% | 27% | 38% | 62% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 19% | 49% | 51% |
| Middle | 33% | 39% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 53% | 42% | 59% | 41% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 29% | 54% | 46% |
| Some C | 11% | 25% | 52% | 48% | |
| BSC+ | 69% | 46% | 61% | 39% |