Trump vs. Harris · October 28, 2024
Trump has double digit lead in Texas
ActiVote’s Oct 28, 2024 Texas Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 10.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 21, 2024 and October 27, 2024 with a median field date of October 24.
Please note that Trump (83%) and Harris (72%) win only around 3/4 of the voters of their party. Texas does not register voters by party. We believe that this simply means the estimate of which voters are D and which are R is less accurate than in some other states.
Harris only wins urban voters, young (18-29) voters, Democrats, Black voters, low income voters and voters with some college. Trump wins or ties every other category.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Texas, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 93% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump has a small lead among centrists.
Comparisons
Our October 17, 2024 poll had Trump +11.6%. Our September 25, 2024 poll had Trump +8.6%. Our August 31, 2024 poll had Trump +9.0%, while our August 13, 2024 poll had Trump +6.6%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Texas by 5.6% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 9.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 21% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 17% | 10% | 90% | |
| Center | 23% | 11% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 24% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 11% | 28% | 95% | 5% | |
| Region | rural | 28% | 31% | 71% | 29% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 36% | 35% | 43% | 57% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 17% | 46% | 54% |
| 30-49 | 43% | 32% | 53% | 47% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 25% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 8% | 27% | 61% | 39% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 61% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 50% | 44% | 28% | 72% |
| R | 38% | 45% | 83% | 17% | |
| I | 12% | 10% | 51% | 49% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 67% | 59% | 63% | 37% |
| Black | 7% | 8% | 20% | 80% | |
| Latino | 21% | 27% | 52% | 48% | |
| Income | Low | 18% | 19% | 46% | 54% |
| Middle | 34% | 39% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 48% | 42% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 29% | 58% | 42% |
| Some C | 13% | 25% | 49% | 51% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 46% | 56% | 44% |