Trump vs. Harris · October 17, 2024
Trump has double digit lead in Texas
ActiVote’s Oct 17, 2024 Texas Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 11.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 26, 2024 and October 16, 2024 with a median field date of October 6.
Please note that three elements in these crosstabs are unusual;
- Trump (88%) and Harris (76%) win only around 4/5 of the voters of their party. Texas does not register voters by party. We believe that this simply means the estimate of which voters are D and which are R is less accurate than in states that do register voters by party affiliation.
- Harris takes only 69% of the Black vote, which seems very low. As the unweighted sample was only 13% of the sample size, the MoE of this category is close to 14% which can explain such an outlier.
- Harris loses the college-educated voters, who typically are more aligned with the Democratic party. In previous Texas polls we have seen 47%, 49%, 39% and 44% support from college-educated voters for Harris (resp. Biden), suggesting that low college-educated support is a surprisingly consistent finding in our Texas polls.
Harris only wins urban voters, young (18-29) voters, Democrats, Black and Latino voters, low income voters and voters with at most High school college. Trump wins or ties every other category.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Texas, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 94% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump has a small lead among centrists.
Comparisons
Our September 25, 2024 poll had Trump +8.6%. Our August 31, 2024 poll had Trump +9.0%, while our August 13, 2024 poll had Trump +6.6%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Texas by 5.6% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 9.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 17, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 22% | 21% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 17% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 19% | 11% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 24% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 18% | 28% | 97% | 3% | |
| Region | rural | 30% | 31% | 69% | 31% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 56% | 44% | |
| urban | 35% | 35% | 44% | 56% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 17% | 36% | 64% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 32% | 58% | 42% | |
| 50-64 | 27% | 25% | 63% | 37% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 27% | 59% | 41% | |
| Gender | F | 37% | 54% | 52% | 48% |
| M | 63% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 45% | 44% | 24% | 76% |
| R | 42% | 45% | 88% | 12% | |
| I | 12% | 10% | 50% | 50% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 66% | 59% | 69% | 31% |
| Black | 13% | 8% | 31% | 69% | |
| Latino | 16% | 27% | 36% | 64% | |
| Income | Low | 15% | 19% | 49% | 51% |
| Middle | 32% | 39% | 55% | 45% | |
| High | 53% | 42% | 60% | 40% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 29% | 40% | 60% |
| Some C | 11% | 25% | 55% | 45% | |
| BSC+ | 69% | 46% | 66% | 34% |