Trump vs. Harris · August 31, 2024
Trump extends lead in Texas
ActiVote’s Aug 31, 2024 Texas Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 9.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 14, 2024 and August 31, 2024 with a median field date of August 22.
Please note that at least three elements in these crosstabs are unusual;
- Trump wins urban voters, while losing suburban voters. This seems an outlier in a category with a MoE of 8.2%.
- Trump and Harris only win around 70% of the voters of their party. Texas does not register voters by party. We suspect that this simply means the estimate of which voters are D and which are R is less accurate than in some other states.
- Harris takes only 68% of the Black vote, which seems very low. As the unweighted sample was only 5% of the sample size, the MoE of this category is 22% which can explain such an outlier.
Harris only wins suburban, young (18-29), female, Democratic and Black voters. Trump wins or ties every other category.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Texas, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 97% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 94% of his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a small lead among centrists.
Comparisons
Our August 13, 2024 poll had Trump +6.6%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Texas by 5.6% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 9.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 31, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 21% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 17% | 5% | 95% | |
| Center | 18% | 11% | 49% | 51% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 24% | 88% | 12% | |
| Right | 19% | 28% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 30% | 31% | 61% | 39% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 47% | 53% | |
| urban | 33% | 35% | 56% | 44% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 20% | 17% | 49% | 51% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 32% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 25% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 27% | 59% | 41% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 54% | 48% | 52% |
| M | 66% | 46% | 62% | 38% | |
| Party | D | 53% | 44% | 33% | 67% |
| R | 40% | 45% | 76% | 24% | |
| I | 8% | 10% | 51% | 49% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 74% | 59% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 5% | 8% | 32% | 68% | |
| Latino | 17% | 27% | 57% | 43% | |
| Income | Low | 12% | 19% | 54% | 46% |
| Middle | 32% | 39% | 60% | 40% | |
| High | 56% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Education | HS | 17% | 29% | 62% | 38% |
| Some C | 16% | 25% | 53% | 47% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 46% | 51% | 49% |