Texas · President · 2024
Trump vs. Harris
55.0%
Donald Trump (R)
45.0%
Kamala Harris (D)
R+10.0%
Final poll · published October 28, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+13.7% Donald Trump won
Our final poll (R+10.0%) · error:
D+3.7%
How the race moved (5 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
Left
99%
Moderate Left
10%
90%
Center
51%
49%
Moderate Right
91%
9%
Right
95%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 21% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 17% | 10% | 90% | |
| Center | 23% | 11% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 24% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 11% | 28% | 95% | 5% | |
| Region | rural | 28% | 31% | 71% | 29% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 36% | 35% | 43% | 57% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 17% | 46% | 54% |
| 30-49 | 43% | 32% | 53% | 47% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 25% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 8% | 27% | 61% | 39% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 61% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 50% | 44% | 28% | 72% |
| R | 38% | 45% | 83% | 17% | |
| I | 12% | 10% | 51% | 49% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 67% | 59% | 63% | 37% |
| Black | 7% | 8% | 20% | 80% | |
| Latino | 21% | 27% | 52% | 48% | |
| Income | Low | 18% | 19% | 46% | 54% |
| Middle | 34% | 39% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 48% | 42% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 29% | 58% | 42% |
| Some C | 13% | 25% | 49% | 51% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 46% | 56% | 44% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2024 | 55.0% | 45.0% | R+10.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.7% | D+3.7% |
| October 17, 2024 | 55.8% | 44.2% | R+11.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.7% | D+2.1% |
| September 25, 2024 | 54.3% | 45.7% | R+8.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.7% | D+5.1% |
| August 31, 2024 | 54.5% | 45.5% | R+9.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.7% | D+4.7% |
| August 13, 2024 | 53.3% | 46.7% | R+6.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.7% | D+7.1% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Texas.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.