Parker vs. Mulder · October 26, 2024
Republicans With Double-Digit Leads in State-Level Texas Races
ActiVote’s October 26, 2024 Texas state-wide polls find that the Republican candidates are ahead in all seven polled races, by on average 11.8%.
The polls were in the field between October 17 and October 25 (median field date of October 21). The polls were among 400 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 4.9%.
Overview
On average between all races, the Republican candidate is ahead of the Democratic candidate by 11.8%, with only small differences. In the judicial races, the smallest lead is 9.4% while the largest lead is 13.2%. The largest lead is for the incumbent in the Texas Railroad Commission race with 16.0%.
In our previous poll of October 1, the Republican candidates were ahead by 10.6% on average, while in our first polls of August 11, the Republican candidates were ahead by 8.6%.
The Political Spectrum crosstabs below show the support for the candidates among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Texas, the distribution over these categories is not exactly equal to the national average with slightly more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 26, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Gina Parker | Nancy Mulder |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 21% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 17% | 6% | 94% | |
| Center | 16% | 11% | 42% | 58% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 24% | 95% | 5% | |
| Right | 15% | 28% | 97% | 3% | |
| Region | rural | 26% | 31% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 38% | 35% | 48% | 52% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 17% | 45% | 55% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 32% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 25% | 58% | 42% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 27% | 63% | 37% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 61% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 48% | 44% | 24% | 76% |
| R | 42% | 45% | 86% | 14% | |
| I | 10% | 10% | 55% | 45% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 69% | 59% | 66% | 34% |
| Black | 10% | 8% | 22% | 78% | |
| Latino | 15% | 27% | 46% | 54% | |
| Income | Low | 15% | 19% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 35% | 39% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 50% | 42% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 29% | 56% | 44% |
| Some C | 14% | 25% | 40% | 60% | |
| BSC+ | 65% | 46% | 63% | 37% |