Blackburn vs. Johnson · October 29, 2024
Blackburn Again Far Ahead in Tennessee
ActiVote’s October 29, 2024 Tennessee U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Marsha Blackburn leads her Democratic challenger State Representative Gloria Johnson by 21.6%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 7, 2024 and October 28, 2024 with a median field date of October 18.
Johnson leads among urban voters, younger voters (18-49), Democrats, and Black voters. Blackburn leads among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Blackburn and Johnson among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Tennessee there are significantly more right-leaning than left-leaning voters.
Both dominate their core constituencies: Johnson takes 98% of the left and moderate left voters, while Blackburn takes 95% of the right and moderate right voters. Blackburn has a 6% lead among centrists. The overall lead for Blackburn is the result of the combination of her leads among centrists and the larger number of right leaning voters (52%) than left leaning voters (27%) in Tennessee.
Comparisons
In our previous poll of October 19, 2024, Blackburn led by 22.6%. Our first poll of September 2, 2024 had Blackburn ahead by 19.6%. In November 2020, incumbent Republican Senator Bill Hagerty beat his Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw by 27.0%. In November 2018, Marscha Blackburn beat former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to fill an open seat by 10.8%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Marsha Blackburn | Gloria Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 14% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 13% | 4% | 96% | |
| Center | 18% | 22% | 53% | 47% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 25% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 16% | 27% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 45% | 49% | 62% | 38% |
| suburban | 49% | 45% | 65% | 35% | |
| urban | 6% | 6% | 23% | 77% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 24% | 12% | 48% | 52% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 29% | 47% | 53% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 27% | 64% | 36% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 32% | 76% | 24% | |
| Gender | F | 47% | 55% | 52% | 48% |
| M | 53% | 45% | 71% | 29% | |
| Party | D | 36% | 23% | 21% | 79% |
| R | 34% | 41% | 87% | 13% | |
| I | 30% | 36% | 57% | 43% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 88% | 82% | 68% | 32% |
| Black | 8% | 13% | 9% | 91% | |
| Latino | 3% | 3% | 72% | 28% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 24% | 58% | 42% |
| Middle | 41% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| High | 36% | 30% | 62% | 38% | |
| Education | HS | 27% | 35% | 70% | 30% |
| Some C | 13% | 23% | 52% | 48% | |
| BSC+ | 61% | 42% | 58% | 42% |