Trump vs. Harris · October 29, 2024
Trump Stays Far ahead in Tennessee
ActiVote’s October 29, 2024 Tennessee Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 23.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 5, 2024 and October 28, 2024 with a median field date of October 17.
Trump leads among all categories of voters, except urban voters, young voters (18-29), Democrats and Black voters.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Tennessee, there are far more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 95% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump also leads by a small margin among the centrists.
Comparisons
In our October 17, 2024 poll, we found Trump +24.8%. In our August 29, 2024 poll, we found Trump +26.2%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Tennessee by 23.2% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 26.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 14% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 13% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 18% | 22% | 53% | 47% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 25% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 15% | 27% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 46% | 49% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 47% | 45% | 60% | 40% | |
| urban | 7% | 6% | 39% | 61% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 24% | 12% | 40% | 60% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 27% | 69% | 31% | |
| 65+ | 15% | 32% | 71% | 29% | |
| Gender | F | 47% | 55% | 53% | 47% |
| M | 53% | 45% | 73% | 27% | |
| Party | D | 33% | 23% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 33% | 41% | 88% | 12% | |
| I | 34% | 36% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 87% | 82% | 69% | 31% |
| Black | 9% | 13% | 13% | 87% | |
| Latino | 2% | 3% | 76% | 24% | |
| Income | Low | 25% | 24% | 62% | 38% |
| Middle | 41% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 34% | 30% | 66% | 34% | |
| Education | HS | 27% | 35% | 70% | 30% |
| Some C | 12% | 23% | 54% | 46% | |
| BSC+ | 61% | 42% | 59% | 41% |