Trump vs. Harris · October 17, 2024
Trump again far ahead in Tennessee
ActiVote’s October 17, 2024 Tennessee Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 24.8%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 24, 2024 and October 16, 2024 with a median field date of October 5.
Trump leads or ties among all categories of voters, except Democrats and Black voters.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Tennessee, there are far more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 93% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 96% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump also leads by a small margin among the centrists.
Comparisons
In our August 29, 2024 poll, we found Trump +26.2%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Tennessee by 23.2% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 26.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 17, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 14% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 13% | 13% | 87% | |
| Center | 21% | 22% | 52% | 48% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 25% | 94% | 6% | |
| Right | 18% | 27% | 98% | 2% | |
| Region | rural | 49% | 49% | 71% | 29% |
| suburban | 44% | 45% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 7% | 6% | 50% | 50% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 23% | 12% | 57% | 43% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 56% | 44% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 27% | 67% | 33% | |
| 65+ | 18% | 32% | 67% | 33% | |
| Gender | F | 43% | 55% | 55% | 45% |
| M | 57% | 45% | 71% | 29% | |
| Party | D | 33% | 23% | 11% | 89% |
| R | 35% | 41% | 85% | 15% | |
| I | 32% | 36% | 70% | 30% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 89% | 82% | 71% | 29% |
| Black | 8% | 13% | 12% | 88% | |
| Latino | 2% | 3% | 61% | 39% | |
| Income | Low | 20% | 24% | 59% | 41% |
| Middle | 39% | 46% | 64% | 36% | |
| High | 41% | 30% | 62% | 38% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 35% | 57% | 43% |
| Some C | 10% | 23% | 72% | 28% | |
| BSC+ | 69% | 42% | 62% | 38% |