Trump vs. Harris · August 30, 2024
Trump far ahead in Tennessee
ActiVote’s Aug 29, 2024 Tennessee Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 26.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 26, 2024 and August 29, 2024 with a median field date of August 12.
Trump leads among all categories of voters, except those aged 18-29, Democrats and Blacks.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Trump and Harris among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Tennessee, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 92% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 98% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump also leads by a wide margin (70% vs. 30%) among the centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Tennessee by 23.2% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 26.0%. Thus, a Trump lead of 26.2% is similar to the gap in the 2016 election.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 30, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 16% | 3% | 97% |
| Moderate Left | 24% | 17% | 13% | 87% | |
| Center | 16% | 18% | 70% | 30% | |
| Moderate Right | 17% | 23% | 96% | 4% | |
| Right | 16% | 26% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 49% | 49% | 69% | 31% |
| suburban | 43% | 45% | 57% | 43% | |
| urban | 8% | 6% | 55% | 45% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 31% | 12% | 43% | 57% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 19% | 27% | 75% | 25% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 32% | 71% | 29% | |
| Gender | F | 44% | 55% | 55% | 45% |
| M | 56% | 45% | 73% | 27% | |
| Party | D | 32% | 23% | 15% | 85% |
| R | 32% | 41% | 94% | 6% | |
| I | 36% | 36% | 59% | 41% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 85% | 82% | 66% | 34% |
| Black | 8% | 13% | 44% | 56% | |
| Latino | 5% | 3% | 72% | 28% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 24% | 66% | 34% |
| Middle | 43% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 33% | 30% | 66% | 34% | |
| Education | HS | 25% | 35% | 66% | 34% |
| Some C | 16% | 23% | 73% | 27% | |
| BSC+ | 59% | 42% | 55% | 45% |