Tennessee · President · 2024
Trump vs. Harris
61.7%
Donald Trump (R)
38.3%
Kamala Harris (D)
R+23.4%
Final poll · published October 29, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+29.7% Donald Trump won
Our final poll (R+23.4%) · error:
D+6.3%
How the race moved (3 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
Left
100%
Moderate Left
9%
91%
Center
53%
47%
Moderate Right
91%
9%
Right
99%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 14% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 13% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 18% | 22% | 53% | 47% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 25% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 15% | 27% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 46% | 49% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 47% | 45% | 60% | 40% | |
| urban | 7% | 6% | 39% | 61% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 24% | 12% | 40% | 60% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 27% | 69% | 31% | |
| 65+ | 15% | 32% | 71% | 29% | |
| Gender | F | 47% | 55% | 53% | 47% |
| M | 53% | 45% | 73% | 27% | |
| Party | D | 33% | 23% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 33% | 41% | 88% | 12% | |
| I | 34% | 36% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 87% | 82% | 69% | 31% |
| Black | 9% | 13% | 13% | 87% | |
| Latino | 2% | 3% | 76% | 24% | |
| Income | Low | 25% | 24% | 62% | 38% |
| Middle | 41% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 34% | 30% | 66% | 34% | |
| Education | HS | 27% | 35% | 70% | 30% |
| Some C | 12% | 23% | 54% | 46% | |
| BSC+ | 61% | 42% | 59% | 41% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2024 | 61.7% | 38.3% | R+23.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+29.7% | D+6.3% |
| October 17, 2024 | 62.4% | 37.6% | R+24.8% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+29.7% | D+4.9% |
| August 30, 2024 | 63.1% | 36.9% | R+26.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+29.7% | D+3.5% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Tennessee.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.