Casey vs. McCormick · November 1, 2024
McCormick Closing in on Casey in Pennsylvania
ActiVote’s November 1, 2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic 3-term incumbent Senator Bob Casey leads his Republican challenger David McCormick by just 1.0%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 14, 2024 and October 31, 2024 with a median field date of October 23.
Please note that in this poll the threshold of 5% for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
McCormick leads among rural voters, older voters (50+), men, Republicans and Independents, Whites, middle income voters and those with at most High School. Casey leads or ties all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Casey and McCormick among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Pennsylvania, the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.
Casey dominates among left leaning voters (98%) while McCormick gets 92% of his core constituency on the right. Casey has a 2% lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In 2022, Democratic candidate John Fetterman beat his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz by 4.9%. In 2018, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey beat his Republican challenger Lou Barletta by 13.1%. Our previous poll of October 8, 2024 found a Casey lead of 6.2%. Our first poll of August 23, 2024 found a Casey lead of 9.8%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Bob Casey | David McCormick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 20% | 23% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 18% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 23% | 13% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 20% | 12% | 88% | |
| Right | 15% | 26% | 4% | 96% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 26% | 33% | 67% |
| suburban | 49% | 48% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 24% | 26% | 69% | 31% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 13% | 56% | 44% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 46% | 54% | |
| 65+ | 15% | 32% | 48% | 52% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 53% | 57% | 43% |
| M | 66% | 47% | 43% | 57% | |
| Party | D | 53% | 45% | 92% | 8% |
| R | 35% | 42% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 10% | 11% | 42% | 58% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 85% | 80% | 47% | 53% |
| Black | 7% | 9% | 78% | 22% | |
| Latino | 4% | 6% | 68% | 32% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 20% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 38% | 43% | 47% | 53% | |
| High | 40% | 37% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 27% | 36% | 38% | 62% |
| Some C | 9% | 19% | 63% | 37% | |
| BSC+ | 64% | 45% | 55% | 45% |