Casey vs. McCormick · August 23, 2024
Casey Has Significantly Lead in Pennsylvania
ActiVote’s August 23, 2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate poll shows that the 3-term incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads his Republican challenger David McCormick by 9.8%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 3, 2024 and August 23, 2024 with a median field date of August 13.
Casey leads among most groups, except for rural voters, the elderly, Republicans and, surprisingly, those with the highest education. Among ethnic groups, Casey and McCormick are tied among White voters, who represent 80% of the electorate in Pennsylvania. As each of the other ethnicities had an unweighted sample of less than 5%, we do not report separately on their leanings.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Casey and McCormick among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Pennsylvania, the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.
Casey dominates among left leaning voters (97%) while McCormick gets 90% of his core constituency on the right. The voters in the center lean towards Casey.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 23, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Bob Casey | David McCormick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 26% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 19% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 18% | 13% | 52% | 48% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 20% | 13% | 87% | |
| Right | 15% | 21% | 6% | 94% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 26% | 36% | 64% |
| suburban | 49% | 48% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 24% | 26% | 80% | 20% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 32% | 13% | 69% | 31% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 29% | 61% | 39% | |
| 50-64 | 20% | 26% | 51% | 49% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 32% | 47% | 53% | |
| Gender | F | 29% | 53% | 56% | 44% |
| M | 71% | 47% | 54% | 46% | |
| Party | D | 54% | 45% | 96% | 4% |
| R | 32% | 42% | 11% | 89% | |
| I | 10% | 11% | 55% | 45% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 90% | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 3% | 9% | 100% | 0% | |
| Latino | 3% | 6% | 46% | 54% | |
| Income | Low | 18% | 20% | 65% | 35% |
| Middle | 42% | 43% | 53% | 47% | |
| High | 40% | 37% | 52% | 48% | |
| Education | HS | 25% | 36% | 66% | 34% |
| Some C | 9% | 19% | 53% | 47% | |
| BSC+ | 66% | 45% | 47% | 53% |