Pennsylvania · U.S. Senate · 2024
Casey vs. McCormick
50.5%
Bob Casey (D)
49.5%
David McCormick (R)
D+1.0%
Final poll · published November 1, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+0.2% David McCormick won
Our final poll (D+1.0%) · error:
D+1.2%
How the race moved (3 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
Left
99%
Moderate Left
97%
Center
51%
49%
Moderate Right
12%
88%
Right
96%
Bob CaseyDavid McCormick
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Bob Casey | David McCormick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 20% | 23% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 18% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 23% | 13% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 20% | 12% | 88% | |
| Right | 15% | 26% | 4% | 96% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 26% | 33% | 67% |
| suburban | 49% | 48% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 24% | 26% | 69% | 31% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 13% | 56% | 44% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 46% | 54% | |
| 65+ | 15% | 32% | 48% | 52% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 53% | 57% | 43% |
| M | 66% | 47% | 43% | 57% | |
| Party | D | 53% | 45% | 92% | 8% |
| R | 35% | 42% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 10% | 11% | 42% | 58% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 85% | 80% | 47% | 53% |
| Black | 7% | 9% | 78% | 22% | |
| Latino | 4% | 6% | 68% | 32% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 20% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 38% | 43% | 47% | 53% | |
| High | 40% | 37% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 27% | 36% | 38% | 62% |
| Some C | 9% | 19% | 63% | 37% | |
| BSC+ | 64% | 45% | 55% | 45% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Casey | McCormick | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 1, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | D+1.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+0.2% | D+1.2% |
| October 8, 2024 | 53.1% | 46.9% | D+6.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+0.2% | D+6.4% |
| August 23, 2024 | 54.9% | 45.1% | D+9.8% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+0.2% | D+10.0% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.