Garrity vs. McClelland · August 23, 2024
Democrats Ahead in All State-Level Pennsylvania Races
ActiVote’s August 23, 2024 Pennsylvania state-wide polls find that the Democratic candidates are ahead in all three polled races:
The polls were in the field between July 26 and August 23 (median field date of August 9). The polls were among 400 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 4.9%.
Overview
Our August 22 Presidential Pennsylvania Poll has Democratic Presidential candidate Harris up by 2.2%. Our August 23 Pennsylvania U.S Senate poll has Democratic Senator Casey up by 9.8%. These three state executive positions thus run more Democratic than the presidential poll, but less so than the U.S. Senate poll.
Given that both the Auditor General (DeFoor) and the Treasurer (Garrity) are Republican incumbents, the leads found in our poll by their Democratic challengers seems a surprising finding.
Please note that in each of these polls the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 our polling disclosures.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 23, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Erin McClelland | Stacy Garrity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 28% | 26% | 98% | 2% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 19% | 89% | 11% | |
| Center | 18% | 13% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 20% | 14% | 86% | |
| Right | 16% | 21% | 7% | 93% | |
| Region | rural | 29% | 26% | 33% | 67% |
| suburban | 50% | 48% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 21% | 26% | 81% | 19% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 31% | 13% | 67% | 33% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 29% | 53% | 47% | |
| 50-64 | 18% | 26% | 49% | 51% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 32% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 28% | 53% | 59% | 41% |
| M | 72% | 47% | 48% | 52% | |
| Party | D | 54% | 45% | 94% | 6% |
| R | 33% | 42% | 12% | 88% | |
| I | 10% | 11% | 52% | 48% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 89% | 80% | 47% | 53% |
| Black | 3% | 9% | 100% | 0% | |
| Latino | 3% | 6% | 59% | 41% | |
| Income | Low | 16% | 20% | 61% | 39% |
| Middle | 45% | 43% | 52% | 48% | |
| High | 38% | 37% | 52% | 48% | |
| Education | HS | 31% | 36% | 67% | 33% |
| Some C | 10% | 19% | 42% | 58% | |
| BSC+ | 59% | 45% | 49% | 51% |