Harris vs. Trump · November 1, 2024
Harris Stays Ahead in Keystone State
ActiVote’s November 3, 2024 Pennsylvania Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 1.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 10, 2024 and November 2, 2024 with a median field date of October 21.
Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, those aged 50-64, men, Republicans, Whites, middle income voters, and those with a Highschool degree or less. Harris leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. The groups in the swing state of Pennsylvania are of slightly different sizes than the national average.
Both Harris (98%) and Trump (92%) get the vast majority of their core constituencies: the left and moderate left for Harris, and the right and moderate right for Trump. Harris has a 14% lead among the centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Pennsylvania by 1.2% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 0.7%. Our first poll (August 22) had Harris up by 2.2%, while our second poll (September 26) had Harris up by 3.2%
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 22% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 18% | 3% | 97% | |
| Center | 21% | 13% | 43% | 57% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 88% | 12% | |
| Right | 13% | 26% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 24% | 26% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 48% | 48% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 28% | 26% | 32% | 68% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 13% | 48% | 52% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 49% | 51% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 53% | 47% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 32% | 48% | 52% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 53% | 43% | 57% |
| M | 66% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| Party | D | 52% | 45% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 33% | 42% | 90% | 10% | |
| I | 11% | 11% | 48% | 52% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 80% | 54% | 46% |
| Black | 8% | 9% | 11% | 89% | |
| Latino | 6% | 6% | 48% | 52% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Middle | 38% | 43% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 39% | 37% | 48% | 52% | |
| Education | HS | 29% | 36% | 69% | 31% |
| Some C | 8% | 19% | 40% | 60% | |
| BSC+ | 63% | 45% | 38% | 62% |