Harris vs. Trump · September 26, 2024
Harris Maintains Narrow Lead in Key(stone) Swing State Pennsylvania
ActiVote’s September 26, 2024 Pennsylvania Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 3.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 1, 2024 and September 25, 2024 with a median field date of September 13.
Trump leads among rural voters, men, Republicans and Independents, White voters, high income voters, and those with a Highschool degree or less. Harris leads or ties all other categories.
Please note that our unweighted sample of Latino voters did not make the threshold of 5% of the overall sample to be included in our crosstabs, but those participants are included in the overall result.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. The groups in the swing state of Pennsylvania are of slightly different sizes than the national average.
Both Harris (96%) and Trump (93%) get the vast majority of their core constituencies: the left and moderate left for Harris, and the right and moderate right for Trump. Harris has a 2% lead among the centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Pennsylvania by 1.2% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 0.7%. Our previous poll (August 22) had Harris up by 2.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · September 26, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 22% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 18% | 6% | 94% | |
| Center | 21% | 20% | 49% | 51% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 20% | 87% | 13% | |
| Right | 17% | 21% | 98% | 2% | |
| Region | rural | 26% | 26% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 46% | 48% | 49% | 51% | |
| urban | 28% | 26% | 31% | 69% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 13% | 47% | 53% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 29% | 48% | 52% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 32% | 49% | 51% | |
| Gender | F | 28% | 53% | 42% | 58% |
| M | 72% | 47% | 55% | 45% | |
| Party | D | 53% | 45% | 8% | 92% |
| R | 30% | 42% | 90% | 10% | |
| I | 13% | 11% | 52% | 48% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 86% | 80% | 54% | 46% |
| Black | 7% | 9% | 22% | 78% | |
| Latino | 3% | 6% | 27% | 73% | |
| Income | Low | 16% | 20% | 47% | 53% |
| Middle | 44% | 43% | 45% | 55% | |
| High | 40% | 37% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 23% | 36% | 65% | 35% |
| Some C | 10% | 19% | 41% | 59% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 45% | 38% | 62% |