Pennsylvania · President · 2024
Harris vs. Trump
50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)
49.5%
Donald Trump (R)
D+1.0%
Final poll · published November 1, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+1.7% Donald Trump won
Our final poll (D+1.0%) · error:
D+2.7%
How the race moved (3 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
Left
99%
Moderate Left
97%
Center
43%
57%
Moderate Right
88%
12%
Right
96%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 22% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 18% | 3% | 97% | |
| Center | 21% | 13% | 43% | 57% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 88% | 12% | |
| Right | 13% | 26% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 24% | 26% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 48% | 48% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 28% | 26% | 32% | 68% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 13% | 48% | 52% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 49% | 51% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 53% | 47% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 32% | 48% | 52% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 53% | 43% | 57% |
| M | 66% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| Party | D | 52% | 45% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 33% | 42% | 90% | 10% | |
| I | 11% | 11% | 48% | 52% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 80% | 54% | 46% |
| Black | 8% | 9% | 11% | 89% | |
| Latino | 6% | 6% | 48% | 52% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Middle | 38% | 43% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 39% | 37% | 48% | 52% | |
| Education | HS | 29% | 36% | 69% | 31% |
| Some C | 8% | 19% | 40% | 60% | |
| BSC+ | 63% | 45% | 38% | 62% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 1, 2024 | 49.5% | 50.5% | D+1.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+1.7% | D+2.7% |
| September 26, 2024 | 48.4% | 51.6% | D+3.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+1.7% | D+4.9% |
| August 22, 2024 | 48.9% | 51.1% | D+2.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+1.7% | D+3.9% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.