Moreno vs. Brown · October 21, 2024
Moreno Extends Lead in Ohio
ActiVote’s October 21, 2024 Ohio U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican challenger Bernie Moreno has increased his lead. He is now ahead of incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown by 3.8%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 23, 2024 and October 20, 2024 with a median field date of October 7.
Please note that in this poll the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
Brown leads among urban voters, the youngest voters, Democrats, Black voters, those with low incomes and those with some college. Moreno leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Moreno and Brown among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Ohio, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Brown has support from the left and moderate left completely locked up: 95% support him. Moreno has the full support of the right and moderate right (93%). Centrists lean towards Brown. Moreno compensates for the shortfall in the center by the fact that there are more right-leaning voters in Ohio than left-leaning voters, edging out a small lead.
Comparisons
In our previous poll (September 22, 2024), Moreno led by 2.2%. In our first poll (August 12, 2024), Brown led by 5.0%.
In the 2022 Ohio Senate election, Republican candidate JD Vance beat his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan by 6.1%. In 2018 incumbent Democratic Senator Brown beat his Republican challenger Jim Renacci by 6.8%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 21, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Bernie Moreno | Sherrod Brown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 19% | 3% | 97% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 17% | 8% | 92% | |
| Center | 20% | 18% | 43% | 57% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 19% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 13% | 26% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 26% | 31% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 50% | 46% | 52% | 48% | |
| urban | 24% | 23% | 35% | 65% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 13% | 26% | 74% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 54% | 46% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 32% | 55% | 45% | |
| Gender | F | 30% | 53% | 52% | 48% |
| M | 70% | 47% | 52% | 48% | |
| Party | D | 45% | 34% | 6% | 94% |
| R | 31% | 37% | 88% | 12% | |
| I | 24% | 29% | 61% | 39% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 86% | 83% | 57% | 43% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 5% | 95% | |
| Latino | 4% | 3% | 30% | 70% | |
| Income | Low | 27% | 23% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 32% | 45% | 56% | 44% | |
| High | 41% | 32% | 50% | 50% | |
| Education | HS | 30% | 35% | 63% | 37% |
| Some C | 13% | 21% | 35% | 65% | |
| BSC+ | 57% | 44% | 51% | 49% |