Shanahan vs. Donnelly · September 13, 2024
Republicans Ahead in Ohio’s Supreme Court Races
ActiVote’s September 13, 2024 Ohio Supreme Court polls find that the Republican candidates are ahead in all three polled races:
The polls were in the field between August 9 and September 13 (median field date of August 26). The polls were among 400 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 4.9%.
Overview
The first race pits incumbent Supreme Court Justice Michael Donnelly (D) against his challenger Judge Megan Shanahan who is a judge of the Hamilton County Court of Common Pleas General Division. Justice Donnelly won his race in 2018 by 22.0%.
The second race pits incumbent Supreme Court Justice Joseph Deters (R) against incumbent Supreme Court Justice Melody Stewart (D). Justice Deters was appointed in 2022, while Justice Stewart won her race in 2018 by 5.2%.
The third race pits Judge Dan Hawkins (R) who is a judge of the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas General Division, against Judge Lisa Forbes (D) who is a judge of the Ohio Eighth District Court of Appeals.
Please note that in each of these polls the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
The Political Spectrum crosstabs below show the support for the candidates among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Ohio, the distribution over these categories is not exactly equal to the national average with slightly more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · September 13, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Megan Shanahan | Michael Donnelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 29% | 19% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 17% | 10% | 90% | |
| Center | 16% | 18% | 57% | 43% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 19% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 16% | 26% | 93% | 7% | |
| Region | rural | 34% | 31% | 65% | 35% |
| suburban | 44% | 46% | 58% | 42% | |
| urban | 22% | 23% | 31% | 69% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 34% | 13% | 36% | 64% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 29% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 17% | 26% | 62% | 38% | |
| 65+ | 8% | 32% | 58% | 42% | |
| Gender | F | 26% | 53% | 52% | 48% |
| M | 74% | 47% | 56% | 44% | |
| Party | D | 43% | 34% | 20% | 80% |
| R | 32% | 37% | 84% | 16% | |
| I | 25% | 29% | 57% | 43% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 92% | 83% | 58% | 42% |
| Black | 3% | 10% | 32% | 68% | |
| Latino | 4% | 3% | 26% | 74% | |
| Income | Low | 25% | 23% | 40% | 60% |
| Middle | 40% | 45% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 35% | 32% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 30% | 35% | 47% | 53% |
| Some C | 16% | 21% | 62% | 38% | |
| BSC+ | 54% | 44% | 56% | 44% |