Trump vs. Harris · October 29, 2024
Trump Leads in Ohio
ActiVote’s October 29, 2024 Ohio Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 8.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 5, 2024 and October 28, 2024 with a median field date of October 17.
Please note that the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
Harris leads among urban voters, young voters (18-29), Democrats, and Blacks. Trump leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Ohio, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Trump gets 93% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Trump also leads among the centrists (+16%). Trump’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in light-red Ohio.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Ohio by 8.0% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 8.1%. Our previous poll of October 1, 2024 had Trump +7.2%. Our August 22nd poll had Trump +12.4%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 19% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 17% | 8% | 92% | |
| Center | 20% | 18% | 58% | 42% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 19% | 86% | 14% | |
| Right | 13% | 26% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 26% | 31% | 65% | 35% |
| suburban | 49% | 46% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 24% | 23% | 37% | 63% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 30% | 13% | 34% | 66% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 29% | 56% | 44% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 26% | 63% | 37% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 32% | 53% | 47% | |
| Gender | F | 33% | 53% | 53% | 47% |
| M | 67% | 47% | 55% | 45% | |
| Party | D | 43% | 34% | 13% | 87% |
| R | 30% | 37% | 89% | 11% | |
| I | 26% | 29% | 60% | 40% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 90% | 83% | 60% | 40% |
| Black | 5% | 10% | 7% | 93% | |
| Latino | 3% | 3% | 35% | 65% | |
| Income | Low | 25% | 23% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 37% | 45% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 38% | 32% | 55% | 45% | |
| Education | HS | 31% | 35% | 60% | 40% |
| Some C | 13% | 21% | 53% | 47% | |
| BSC+ | 57% | 44% | 50% | 50% |