Trump vs. Harris · August 22, 2024
Trump Has Double-Digit Lead in Ohio
ActiVote’s Aug 22, 2024 Ohio Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 12.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 2, 2024 and August 22, 2024 with a median field date of August 12.
Harris only leads in urban areas and among the youngest voters. She has a narrow lead among women and a large lead among Democrats and Black voters. Finally, she leads among those with the lowest incomes and those with the highest education. Trump leads in all other categories.
Please note that Missouri does not register by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file may be less accurate than in some other states, possibly explaining why Harris loses 21% of “Democrats” and Trump loses 14% of “Republicans”.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Ohio, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 90% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left). Trump does even better among his core constituency (the right and moderate right) claiming 92% of the vote. Trump also has a significant edge among the centrists (+20%). Trump’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Missouri.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Missouri by 8.0% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 8.1%. Thus, a Trump lead of 12.4% is significantly larger than in those previous elections.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 22, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 19% | 5% | 95% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 17% | 15% | 85% | |
| Center | 18% | 18% | 60% | 40% | |
| Moderate Right | 11% | 19% | 89% | 11% | |
| Right | 16% | 26% | 94% | 6% | |
| Region | rural | 28% | 31% | 62% | 38% |
| suburban | 45% | 46% | 58% | 42% | |
| urban | 28% | 23% | 46% | 54% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 41% | 13% | 34% | 66% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 29% | 54% | 46% | |
| 50-64 | 19% | 26% | 63% | 37% | |
| 65+ | 6% | 32% | 61% | 39% | |
| Gender | F | 29% | 53% | 49% | 51% |
| M | 71% | 47% | 65% | 35% | |
| Party | D | 44% | 34% | 21% | 79% |
| R | 26% | 37% | 86% | 14% | |
| I | 30% | 29% | 60% | 40% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 89% | 83% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 5% | 10% | 32% | 68% | |
| Latino | 4% | 3% | 60% | 40% | |
| Income | Low | 27% | 23% | 44% | 56% |
| Middle | 37% | 45% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 36% | 32% | 63% | 37% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 35% | 62% | 38% |
| Some C | 20% | 21% | 60% | 40% | |
| BSC+ | 59% | 44% | 49% | 51% |