Harris vs. Trump · October 28, 2024
Harris leads in New York
ActiVote’s October 28, 2024 New York Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 18.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 7, 2024 and October 27, 2024 with a median field date of October 17, 2024.
Trump leads among rural New Yorkers, Republicans and those with some college, while Harris leads among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of New York, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 97% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left). Trump has slightly more dissenters (12%) among his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Harris also has an edge among the centrists (+8%). The large Harris lead is further amplified by having many more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters in blue New York.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in New York by 23.1% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 23.5%. In our October 1, 2024 poll, Harris led by 21.2%. In our August 21, 2024 poll, Harris led by 16.6%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 23% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 32% | 23% | 5% | 95% | |
| Center | 22% | 18% | 46% | 54% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 14% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 11% | 21% | 86% | 14% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 18% | 57% | 43% |
| suburban | 30% | 24% | 46% | 54% | |
| urban | 50% | 58% | 34% | 66% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 29% | 12% | 30% | 70% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 30% | 44% | 56% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 26% | 37% | 63% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 32% | 46% | 54% | |
| Gender | F | 37% | 55% | 40% | 60% |
| M | 63% | 45% | 42% | 58% | |
| Party | D | 56% | 50% | 13% | 87% |
| R | 21% | 25% | 92% | 8% | |
| I | 18% | 20% | 47% | 53% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 75% | 64% | 47% | 53% |
| Black | 10% | 13% | 12% | 88% | |
| Latino | 10% | 14% | 47% | 53% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 19% | 46% | 54% |
| Middle | 27% | 35% | 37% | 63% | |
| High | 50% | 45% | 42% | 58% | |
| Education | HS | 18% | 31% | 42% | 58% |
| Some C | 11% | 18% | 52% | 48% | |
| BSC+ | 71% | 50% | 36% | 64% |