Harris vs. Trump · October 29, 2024
Harris Leads in New Jersey
ActiVote’s October 29, 2024 New Jersey Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 13.8%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 2, 2024 and October 28, 2024 with a median field date of October 15, 2024.
Trump leads among rural voters, older voters (65+), men, Republicans, White voters and those with High school or less. Harris leads or ties among all other groups.
Please note that the unweighted sample of Black voters (7%) results in a possibly large Margin-of-Error. In our (small) sample of Black voters, every single one preferred Vice-President Harris, leading to the inflated number of 100% backing her.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of New Jersey, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 96% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Trump gets 94% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Harris has a small lead (4%) among centrists. The overall Harris lead is the result of having many more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters in blue New Jersey.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in New Jersey by 15.9% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 14.1%. In our poll of October 3, 2024, we had Harris up by 12.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 25% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 24% | 22% | 6% | 94% | |
| Center | 21% | 20% | 48% | 52% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 15% | 92% | 8% | |
| Right | 16% | 18% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 10% | 7% | 53% | 47% |
| suburban | 47% | 44% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 42% | 49% | 35% | 65% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 15% | 38% | 62% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 29% | 34% | 66% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 27% | 44% | 56% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 29% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 32% | 54% | 33% | 67% |
| M | 68% | 46% | 54% | 46% | |
| Party | D | 48% | 41% | 9% | 91% |
| R | 32% | 26% | 91% | 9% | |
| I | 17% | 32% | 46% | 54% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 69% | 63% | 51% | 49% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 0% | 100% | |
| Latino | 16% | 16% | 44% | 56% | |
| Income | Low | 7% | 14% | 28% | 72% |
| Middle | 30% | 30% | 44% | 56% | |
| High | 63% | 57% | 46% | 54% | |
| Education | HS | 17% | 29% | 56% | 44% |
| Some C | 10% | 18% | 19% | 81% | |
| BSC+ | 73% | 53% | 44% | 56% |