Trump vs. Harris · November 1, 2024
Trump takes the lead in North Carolina
ActiVote’s November 3, 2024 North Carolina Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 1.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 17, 2024 and November 2, 2024 with a median field date of October 25.
Trump leads among rural voters, those aged 50+, men, Republicans, Whites, those with low or middle incomes, and those with some college. Harris leads or ties all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the historically light-red state of North Carolina, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 98% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 92% of his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a small lead (4%) among centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in North Carolina by 1.3% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 3.7%. Our first poll of August 29, 2024 had the candidates exactly tied, while our last poll of October 7, 2024 had Harris up by 1.6%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 22% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 30% | 16% | 4% | 96% | |
| Center | 20% | 15% | 48% | 52% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 11% | 26% | 92% | 8% | |
| Region | rural | 39% | 44% | 59% | 41% |
| suburban | 56% | 50% | 46% | 54% | |
| urban | 5% | 6% | 32% | 68% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 16% | 40% | 60% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 29% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 55% | 45% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 29% | 53% | 47% | |
| Gender | F | 43% | 54% | 43% | 57% |
| M | 57% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 36% | 33% | 8% | 92% |
| R | 21% | 32% | 97% | 3% | |
| I | 41% | 35% | 48% | 52% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 69% | 68% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 22% | 22% | 17% | 83% | |
| Latino | 6% | 6% | 43% | 57% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 22% | 51% | 49% |
| Middle | 39% | 47% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 40% | 31% | 50% | 50% | |
| Education | HS | 30% | 31% | 46% | 54% |
| Some C | 12% | 25% | 60% | 40% | |
| BSC+ | 59% | 44% | 49% | 51% |