Trump vs. Harris · October 7, 2024
Harris has small lead in North Carolina
ActiVote’s October 7, 2024 North Carolina presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 1.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 7, 2024 and October 6, 2024 with a median field date of September 22.
Trump leads among rural voters, those aged 50-64, men, Republicans, White voters, those with middle or high incomes, and those with at most a High school education. Harris leads among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the historically light-red state of North Carolina, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 94% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 88% of his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a significant lead (20%) among centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in North Carolina by 1.3% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 3.7%. Our previous poll of August 29, 2024 had the candidates exactly tied.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 7, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 22% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 16% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 22% | 15% | 40% | 60% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 21% | 84% | 16% | |
| Right | 15% | 26% | 92% | 8% | |
| Region | rural | 35% | 44% | 61% | 39% |
| suburban | 57% | 50% | 42% | 58% | |
| urban | 8% | 6% | 28% | 72% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 28% | 16% | 43% | 57% |
| 30-49 | 33% | 29% | 49% | 51% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 16% | 29% | 46% | 54% | |
| Gender | F | 37% | 54% | 41% | 59% |
| M | 63% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 39% | 33% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 22% | 32% | 93% | 7% | |
| I | 38% | 35% | 45% | 55% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 69% | 61% | 39% |
| Black | 25% | 23% | 13% | 87% | |
| Latino | 6% | 6% | 39% | 61% | |
| Income | Low | 20% | 22% | 42% | 58% |
| Middle | 37% | 47% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 44% | 31% | 51% | 49% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 31% | 55% | 45% |
| Some C | 13% | 25% | 45% | 55% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 44% | 47% | 53% |