North Carolina · Labor Commissioner · 2024
Farley vs. Winston
51.7%
Luke Farley (R)
48.3%
Braxton Winston (D)
R+3.4%
Final poll · published October 27, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+5.5% Luke Farley won
Our final poll (R+3.4%) · error:
D+2.1%
How the race moved (2 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 27, 2024
Left
96%
Moderate Left
93%
Center
39%
61%
Moderate Right
93%
Right
95%
Luke FarleyBraxton Winston
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Luke Farley | Braxton Winston |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 22% | 4% | 96% |
| Moderate Left | 31% | 16% | 7% | 93% | |
| Center | 18% | 15% | 39% | 61% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 21% | 93% | 7% | |
| Right | 13% | 26% | 95% | 5% | |
| Region | rural | 41% | 44% | 60% | 40% |
| suburban | 55% | 50% | 48% | 52% | |
| urban | 5% | 6% | 29% | 71% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 24% | 16% | 43% | 57% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 29% | 53% | 47% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 29% | 56% | 44% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 54% | 45% | 55% |
| M | 62% | 46% | 60% | 40% | |
| Party | D | 36% | 33% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 22% | 32% | 94% | 6% | |
| I | 40% | 35% | 50% | 50% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 72% | 68% | 63% | 37% |
| Black | 20% | 22% | 17% | 83% | |
| Latino | 6% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |
| Income | Low | 21% | 22% | 43% | 57% |
| Middle | 38% | 47% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 41% | 31% | 54% | 46% | |
| Education | HS | 32% | 31% | 54% | 46% |
| Some C | 8% | 25% | 56% | 44% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 44% | 48% | 52% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Farley | Winston | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27, 2024 | 51.7% | 48.3% | R+3.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+5.5% | D+2.1% |
| September 23, 2024 | 49.3% | 50.7% | D+1.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+5.5% | D+6.9% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in North Carolina.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.