Stein vs. Robinson · November 1, 2024
Stein Extends Lead Again in North Carolina
ActiVote’s November 1, 2024 North Carolina Governor poll shows that the Democratic candidate and current Attorney General Josh Stein leads his Republican opponent and current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson by 15.2%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 17, 2024 and October 31, 2024 with a median field date of October 24.
Robinson leads among men, Republicans, White voters and those with some college. Stein leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Stein and Robinson among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of North Carolina the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.
Stein dominates among left leaning voters (99%) while Robinson takes only 80% of his core constituency on the right. Stein wins over 70% of the voters in the center.
Comparisons
In November 2020, the current Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won his race by 4.5%. In that same election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein won his Attorney General election by 0.3%, while Republican candidate Mark Robinson won his Lt. Governor election by 3.2%. In our last poll of October 6, Stein led by 13.0%. In our first poll of August 26, 2024 Stein was ahead by 8.2%
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Josh Stein | Mark Robinson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 22% | 22% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 31% | 16% | 98% | 2% | |
| Center | 20% | 15% | 72% | 28% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 21% | 27% | 73% | |
| Right | 12% | 26% | 12% | 88% | |
| Region | rural | 39% | 44% | 50% | 50% |
| suburban | 55% | 50% | 61% | 39% | |
| urban | 5% | 6% | 83% | 17% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 16% | 68% | 32% |
| 30-49 | 42% | 29% | 57% | 43% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 29% | 59% | 41% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 54% | 67% | 33% |
| M | 60% | 46% | 46% | 54% | |
| Party | D | 39% | 33% | 97% | 3% |
| R | 21% | 32% | 11% | 89% | |
| I | 39% | 35% | 63% | 37% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 68% | 47% | 53% |
| Black | 22% | 22% | 86% | 14% | |
| Latino | 7% | 6% | 67% | 33% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 22% | 64% | 36% |
| Middle | 39% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| High | 39% | 31% | 54% | 46% | |
| Education | HS | 30% | 31% | 67% | 33% |
| Some C | 10% | 25% | 44% | 56% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 44% | 59% | 41% |