Stein vs. Robinson · October 6, 2024
Stein Extends Lead in North Carolina
ActiVote’s October 6, 2024 North Carolina Governor poll shows that the Democratic candidate and current Attorney General Josh Stein leads his Republican opponent and current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson by 13.0%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 5, 2024 and October 5, 2024 with a median field date of September 20.
Robinson leads among rural voters, those aged 50-64, men, Republicans, White voters and those with at most a High school diploma. Stein leads in all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Stein and Robinson among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of North Carolina the distribution of voters is not equal to the national distribution.
Stein dominates among left leaning voters (97%) while Robinson takes only 80% of his core constituency on the right. Stein wins ⅔ of the voters in the center.
Comparisons
In November 2020, the current Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won his race by 4.5%. In that same election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein won his Attorney General election by 0.3%, while Republican candidate Mark Robinson won his Lt. Governor election by 3.2%. In our previous poll of August 26, 2024 Stein was ahead by 8.2%
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 6, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Josh Stein | Mark Robinson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 22% | 98% | 2% |
| Moderate Left | 30% | 16% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 21% | 15% | 67% | 33% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 21% | 31% | 69% | |
| Right | 13% | 26% | 9% | 91% | |
| Region | rural | 38% | 44% | 48% | 52% |
| suburban | 54% | 50% | 61% | 39% | |
| urban | 7% | 6% | 83% | 17% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 28% | 16% | 63% | 37% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 29% | 61% | 39% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 26% | 46% | 54% | |
| 65+ | 15% | 29% | 58% | 42% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 54% | 63% | 37% |
| M | 66% | 46% | 48% | 52% | |
| Party | D | 37% | 33% | 93% | 7% |
| R | 23% | 32% | 3% | 97% | |
| I | 39% | 35% | 70% | 30% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 69% | 68% | 47% | 53% |
| Black | 22% | 22% | 90% | 10% | |
| Latino | 6% | 6% | 71% | 29% | |
| Income | Low | 21% | 22% | 56% | 44% |
| Middle | 38% | 47% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 42% | 31% | 55% | 45% | |
| Education | HS | 22% | 31% | 48% | 52% |
| Some C | 17% | 25% | 53% | 47% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 44% | 64% | 36% |