Stein vs. Robinson · August 26, 2024
Stein Ahead of Robinson in North Carolina
ActiVote’s August 26, 2024 North Carolina Governor poll shows that the Democratic candidate and current Attorney General Josh Stein leads his Republican opponent and current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson by 8.2%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 26, 2024 and August 26, 2024 with a median field date of August 10.
Stein leads among suburban and urban voters, while Robinson leads among rural voters. Stein leads among the youngest and oldest voters, while Robinson leads or ties among those age 30-64. Stein leads among women, while Robinson leads among men. Both take 90%+ of their respective parties, while Stein has a significant lead among independents. Robinson leads among White voters, while Stein takes 87% of Black voters. Robinson wins those with the highest incomes and some college, while Stein wins the other income and education categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Stein and Robinson among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of North Carolina the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.
Stein dominates among left leaning voters (98%) while Robinson takes only 86% of his core constituency on the right. Stein wins ⅔ of the voters in the center.
Comparisons
In November 2020, the current Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won his race by 4.5%. In that same election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein won his Attorney General election by 0.3%, while Republican candidate Mark Robinson won his Lt. Governor election by 3.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 26, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Josh Stein | Mark Robinson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 22% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 16% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 21% | 15% | 67% | 33% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 15% | 85% | |
| Right | 15% | 26% | 13% | 87% | |
| Region | rural | 42% | 44% | 48% | 52% |
| suburban | 52% | 50% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 6% | 6% | 88% | 12% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 30% | 16% | 61% | 39% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 29% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 26% | 46% | 54% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 29% | 61% | 39% | |
| Gender | F | 32% | 54% | 62% | 38% |
| M | 68% | 46% | 45% | 55% | |
| Party | D | 34% | 33% | 93% | 7% |
| R | 22% | 32% | 10% | 90% | |
| I | 42% | 35% | 58% | 42% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 74% | 68% | 42% | 58% |
| Black | 20% | 22% | 87% | 13% | |
| Latino | 3% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |
| Income | Low | 17% | 22% | 59% | 41% |
| Middle | 41% | 47% | 56% | 44% | |
| High | 42% | 31% | 47% | 53% | |
| Education | HS | 25% | 31% | 61% | 39% |
| Some C | 15% | 25% | 39% | 61% | |
| BSC+ | 61% | 44% | 58% | 42% |