Trump vs. Haley · February 17, 2024

ActiVote’s February 18, 2024 presidential Republican primary poll finds that former President Trump leads his last remaining challenger, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley by 66.0%, with 83.0% supporting Trump and 17.0% supporting Haley.

The poll was taken among 782 likely Republican Presidential Primary voters: ActiVote app users who recently updated their Republican presidential candidate preference. The poll has been weighted to represent the national electorate (including voting chance in presidential primary elections) and has a mean average error of 3.5%.

Trump dominates every single demographic and draws the support of at least 7 out of 10 people even in his worst categories. Still, there are some clear (and mostly unsurprising) demographic differences.

Trump has stronger than average support in rural areas, whereas Haley’s supporters are mainly found in urban areas.

Trump’s support is highest among the oldest voters, while Haley has more than average support among the youngest Republicans.

Somewhat surprisingly, there is very little difference in support by gender.

The large majority of Republican voters are White, whose support for the candidates aligns with the overall average. The much smaller group of Black voters lean more towards Haley than the overall average, contrary to the small group of Latino voters, who support Trump more than on average.

Haley finds more supporters among the highest earning voters, while Trump is more popular than average among those with lower and middle incomes.

Similar to income, Haley has more supporters among those with the highest level of education, while Trump has more supporters among those with lower education levels.

The clearest distinction between Trump and Haley is found by looking at the political leanings of voters. The more centrist Republicans are the most likely to support Haley, with her drawing over 40% support, the single largest support group of all subgroups measured. Trump, on the other hand, has the support of 94% of those on the right end of the spectrum.

In conclusion, it seems Trump has the nomination locked up, with overwhelming support of the Republican primary voters. The only silver lining for Haley would be that especially swing voters (those nearer to the center of the electorate) seem to like her best. That is good news for her, if she were the Republican nominee. But based on our polling, that is highly unlikely to happen.

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For more details check out ActiVote’s polling.