Trump vs. Harris · November 3, 2024
Trump Retakes the Lead
ActiVote’s November 3, 2024 national presidential poll finds that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 1.0%. The poll was in the field between October 27 and November 2 (median field date of October 30). The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
Harris leads among urban voters, youngsters (18-29), women, Democrats, Blacks and Latinos, low income and high income voters, and those with some college. Trump leads or ties among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
Both Harris (95%) and Trump (94%) do an excellent job locking in their base. Trump has an 8% lead among centrists.
Daily Tracking Poll
ActiVote runs (internally) a daily poll consisting of the last 1000 user responses to determine the state of the race. As soon as such a daily poll no longer overlaps in field period with our previous published poll, we publish that poll with all relevant details. The race trend graph shows the daily movement in the top-line result of our tracking poll, starting July 27th. It is only provided as an illustration of possible momentum in the race and overall movement over time based on ActiVote polling.
The trend suggests that Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about 3-4 weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of 2 weeks where it hovered around a 5-point lead, which came down to a 2-3% lead around Labor day, and stayed there for a while, before starting a steady climb post the September 10 debate. Since then her overall numbers slowly deteriorated until they were tied by October 1st. For all of October, they have essentially been tied with just statistical noise on a day-to-day basis. In the first days of November, Trump pulled ahead again, but it is unclear at this point whether that is again statistical noise or real momentum.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 3, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 21% | 20% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 20% | 7% | 93% | |
| Center | 23% | 20% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 20% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 14% | 20% | 98% | 2% | |
| Region | rural | 33% | 32% | 61% | 39% |
| suburban | 38% | 37% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 29% | 32% | 40% | 60% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 14% | 41% | 59% |
| 30-49 | 43% | 30% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 9% | 31% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 45% | 54% | 41% | 59% |
| M | 55% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 44% | 40% | 17% | 83% |
| R | 29% | 35% | 87% | 13% | |
| I | 25% | 23% | 51% | 49% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 74% | 70% | 59% | 41% |
| Black | 12% | 11% | 22% | 78% | |
| Latino | 11% | 13% | 40% | 60% | |
| Income | Low | 21% | 19% | 39% | 61% |
| Middle | 40% | 41% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 39% | 40% | 48% | 52% | |
| Education | HS | 28% | 31% | 51% | 49% |
| Some C | 12% | 23% | 48% | 52% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 46% | 51% | 49% |