Trump vs. Harris · July 23, 2024
Trump Narrowly Ahead of Harris
ActiVote’s July 23, 2024 presidential poll finds that former President Trump leads current Vice President Harris by 1.0%. The poll was in the field between July 21 and July 23 (median field date of July 22) after President Biden announced he was no longer seeking re-election.
The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
Trump is strongest among rural and suburban voters, while Harris wins urban voters by a large margin. Harris wins the voters under 50, and ties Trump on those 65+. Trump only wins the 50-64 age group. Trump wins men, while Harris wins women. Both win a large majority of those affiliated with their party, while Harris wins the independents. Trump wins White voters, while Harris wins Black voters by a large margin, and wins Latinos by a small margin.
In the income and education categories, Harris wins the higher educated and/or higher income voters, while Trump wins among the lower and middle education and income categories.
The crosstabs below show the support for Trump and Harris among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Both candidates do equally well on their side of the spectrum: Harris gets 89% of the left leaning voters, while Trump gets 90% of the right leaning voters. Harris just edges out Trump with the voters in the center.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · July 23, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Region | rural | 37% | 32% | 57% | 43% |
| suburban | 38% | 37% | 56% | 44% | |
| urban | 25% | 32% | 37% | 63% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 36% | 14% | 49% | 51% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 30% | 46% | 54% | |
| 50-64 | 17% | 26% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 7% | 31% | 50% | 50% | |
| Gender | F | 30% | 54% | 41% | 59% |
| M | 70% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 51% | 40% | 16% | 84% |
| R | 25% | 35% | 90% | 10% | |
| I | 23% | 23% | 46% | 54% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 84% | 70% | 57% | 43% |
| Black | 6% | 11% | 10% | 90% | |
| Latino | 8% | 13% | 46% | 54% | |
| Income | Low | 20% | 19% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 39% | 41% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 41% | 40% | 48% | 52% | |
| Education | HS | 19% | 31% | 57% | 43% |
| Some C | 18% | 23% | 52% | 48% | |
| BSC+ | 64% | 46% | 45% | 55% |