National · President · 2024
Trump vs. Harris
50.5%
Donald Trump (R)
49.5%
Kamala Harris (D)
R+1.0%
Final poll · published November 3, 2024 · 1000 likely voters · MoE ±3.1%
Election result
R+1.5% Donald Trump won
Our final poll (R+1.0%) · error:
D+0.5%
How the race moved (14 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · November 3, 2024
Left
98%
Moderate Left
93%
Center
54%
46%
Moderate Right
91%
9%
Right
98%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 21% | 20% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 20% | 7% | 93% | |
| Center | 23% | 20% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 20% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 14% | 20% | 98% | 2% | |
| Region | rural | 33% | 32% | 61% | 39% |
| suburban | 38% | 37% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 29% | 32% | 40% | 60% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 14% | 41% | 59% |
| 30-49 | 43% | 30% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 9% | 31% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 45% | 54% | 41% | 59% |
| M | 55% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 44% | 40% | 17% | 83% |
| R | 29% | 35% | 87% | 13% | |
| I | 25% | 23% | 51% | 49% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 74% | 70% | 59% | 41% |
| Black | 12% | 11% | 22% | 78% | |
| Latino | 11% | 13% | 40% | 60% | |
| Income | Low | 21% | 19% | 39% | 61% |
| Middle | 40% | 41% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 39% | 40% | 48% | 52% | |
| Education | HS | 28% | 31% | 51% | 49% |
| Some C | 12% | 23% | 48% | 52% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 46% | 51% | 49% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 3, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | R+1.0% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+0.5% |
| October 25, 2024 | 49.9% | 50.1% | D+0.2% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+1.7% |
| October 18, 2024 | 51.1% | 48.9% | R+2.2% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | R+0.7% |
| October 9, 2024 | 50.6% | 49.4% | R+1.2% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+0.3% |
| October 3, 2024 | 49.3% | 50.7% | D+1.4% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+2.9% |
| September 25, 2024 | 48.6% | 51.4% | D+2.8% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+4.3% |
| September 17, 2024 | 47.3% | 52.7% | D+5.4% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+6.9% |
| September 9, 2024 | 48.8% | 51.2% | D+2.4% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+3.9% |
| September 2, 2024 | 49.2% | 50.8% | D+1.6% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+3.1% |
| August 23, 2024 | 47.4% | 52.6% | D+5.2% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+6.7% |
| August 14, 2024 | 47.6% | 52.4% | D+4.8% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+6.3% |
| August 6, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | R+0.0% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+1.5% |
| July 30, 2024 | 51.3% | 48.7% | R+2.6% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | R+1.1% |
| July 23, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | R+1.0% | 1000 | ±3.1% | R+1.5% | D+0.5% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 1000 likely voters in the United States.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±3.1%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.