Trump vs. Biden · February 26, 2024

ActiVote’s February 27, 2024 presidential polls find that former President Trump leads current President Biden by 6.2%, while former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley leads Biden by 2.0%. The polls were taken among resp. 999 (Biden-Trump) and 745 (Biden-Haley) likely presidential election voters: ActiVote voters who recently updated their presidential candidate preference. The poll has been weighted to represent the national electorate (including voting chance in presidential elections) and has a mean average error of 3.1% resp. 3.6%.

Both Trump and Haley lead in rural and suburban areas, while Biden leads both his potential opponents in urban areas. Trump does much better than Haley in rural areas, while Haley does somewhat better than Trump in the suburbs.

Trump wins every age group against Biden, by 5%-9%. Haley, on the other hand, wins the medium age groups narrowly (3%-4%), while she loses against Biden by 8% among the oldest voters, simultaneously crushing Biden by 23% among the youngest voters. It suggests that the “age-issue” (Biden at 81, Trump at 77 and Haley at 52) is especially important to the younger voters, and the least of an issue for the oldest voters.

While there are no surprises in that both Republicans do well with men, and the Democrat does well with women, the major surprise is that Nikki Haley does slightly better (1%) with men than Donald Trump, while she does markedly worse with women (9%) than Donald Trump.

Biden loses more Democrats to Trump (16%) than he loses to Haley (12%), while Haley loses more Republicans to Biden (12%) than Trump does (6%). Haley’s strength is among the Independents: she beats Biden by 23% while Trump beats Biden only by 8%.

Both Trump and Haley win big among the White vote (18%-20%), while Biden wins among Blacks and Latinos. The main difference is that Trump does significantly better (about 20%) than Haley among Blacks and Latinos.

Trump wins in all income categories, albeit with a very small margin among the highest incomes. Haley does significantly worse than Trump among the lowest incomes and loses to Biden by 18%.

Trump wins all education categories by anywhere from 2% to 12%. Haley, on the other hand, loses the highest and lowest educated groups by 2%-6%, but wins those with some college by over 20%.

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