Trump vs. Biden · January 4, 2024
Trump vs Biden Poll (Jan 2024)
ActiVote’s January 4th, 2024 presidential poll finds that former President Trump leads current President Biden by 8.0%. The poll was taken among 841 likely presidential election voters: ActiVote app users who recently updated their presidential candidate preference. The poll has been weighted to represent the national electorate (including voting chance in presidential elections) and has a mean average error of 3.4%.
Trump leads Biden in rural and suburban areas, while Biden leads Trump in urban areas.
Consistent with our September 2023 poll, this poll shows again a surprising lead for Trump among the youngest voters. We wonder whether there is a relationship with the increased disapproval we found in our last Biden Approval rating poll especially from the progressive left. In any case: Trump at this point wins every single age group.
No surprises in the split between women (favoring Biden) and men (favoring Trump).
Extraordinary in this poll is that Republicans almost unanimously favor Trump over Biden, while 1 in 6 Democrats do not support Biden. Independents lean towards Trump by a 9% margin.
Trump beats Biden among White voters as expected. The surprising find of our poll is that Latinos favor Trump, while Black support for Biden (which was 3:1 in our September poll) is now only 2:1 in this poll.
Biden does best among those with the highest incomes, but even among those voters, Trump ekes out a narrow win. Trump easily leads both the middle income and especially the lower income voters.
Biden has a small advantage among those who have finished college, while Trump does best among those who do not have a 4-years college degree.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · January 4, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 841 LV | Donald Trump | Joe Biden |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.4% MoE | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Region | rural | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 56% | 44% | |
| urban | 41% | 59% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 58% | 42% |
| 30-49 | 51% | 49% | |
| 50-64 | 54% | 46% | |
| 65+ | 56% | 44% | |
| Gender | F | 43% | 57% |
| M | 67% | 33% | |
| Party | D | 16% | 84% |
| R | 97% | 3% | |
| I | 55% | 45% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 58% | 42% |
| Black | 34% | 66% | |
| Latino | 57% | 43% | |
| Income | Low | 58% | 42% |
| Middle | 55% | 45% | |
| High | 50% | 50% | |
| Education | Highschool | 59% | 41% |
| Some College | 61% | 39% | |
| BSC+ | 47% | 53% |