Trump vs. Biden · September 20, 2023
Trump vs Biden Poll (Sept 2023)
ActiVote’s September 19th, 2023 presidential poll finds that former President Trump leads current President Biden by 3.4%. The poll was taken among 676 likely presidential election voters: ActiVote app users who recently updated their presidential candidate preference. The poll has been weighted to represent the national electorate (including voting chance in presidential elections) and has a mean average error of 3.8%.
Trump leads Biden in rural areas, while Biden leads Trump in urban areas. Trump narrowly leads Biden in the suburbs.
Our poll shows a surprising lead for Trump among younger voters, which seems to go against findings in other polls. Biden does especially well among the most senior voters.
No surprises in the split between women (favoring Biden) and men (favoring Trump).
Both parties in large majority (between 80% and 90%) favor their own candidate, with slightly more Democratic than Republican dissenters. Independents lean towards Trump by an almost 6% margin.
We find, similar to other polls, that Biden’s support among Black and Latino voters is lower than expected historically for the Democratic candidate. Trump has a significant lead among White voters.
Biden does best among those with the highest incomes, while Trump leads both the middle income and especially the lower income voters.
Biden dominates the field among those who have finished college, while Trump does best among those who do not have a 4-years college degree.
You can find more details about ActiVote’s polling methodology here.
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Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · September 20, 2023
The full crosstab table
 | 676 LV | Donald Trump | Joe Biden |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.8% MoE | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Region | rural | 62% | 38% |
| suburban | 52% | 48% | |
| urban | 41% | 59% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 57% | 43% |
| 30-49 | 49% | 51% | |
| 50-64 | 61% | 39% | |
| 65+ | 44% | 56% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 60% |
| M | 65% | 35% | |
| Party | D | 18% | 82% |
| R | 88% | 12% | |
| I | 53% | 47% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 56% | 44% |
| Black | 26% | 74% | |
| Latino | 44% | 56% | |
| Income | Low | 56% | 44% |
| Middle | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 47% | 53% | |
| Education | Highschool | 56% | 44% |
| Some College | 65% | 35% | |
| BSC+ | 42% | 58% |