National · President · 2024
Trump vs. Biden
50.5%
Donald Trump (R)
49.5%
Joe Biden (D)
R+1.0%
Final poll · published July 16, 2024 · 1000 likely voters · MoE ±3.1%
How the race moved (10 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · July 16, 2024
rural
60%
40%
suburban
53%
47%
urban
38%
62%
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
The full crosstab table
 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Joe Biden |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Region | rural | 37% | 32% | 60% | 40% |
| suburban | 38% | 37% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 24% | 32% | 38% | 62% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 33% | 14% | 44% | 56% |
| 30-49 | 33% | 30% | 41% | 59% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 55% | 45% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 31% | 59% | 41% | |
| Gender | F | 29% | 54% | 44% | 56% |
| M | 71% | 46% | 58% | 42% | |
| Party | D | 41% | 40% | 7% | 93% |
| R | 35% | 35% | 94% | 6% | |
| I | 23% | 23% | 56% | 44% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 70% | 59% | 41% |
| Black | 9% | 11% | 12% | 88% | |
| Latino | 6% | 13% | 49% | 51% | |
| Income | Low | 17% | 19% | 47% | 53% |
| Middle | 49% | 41% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 34% | 40% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 28% | 31% | 60% | 40% |
| Some C | 35% | 23% | 50% | 50% | |
| BSC+ | 37% | 46% | 44% | 56% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Biden | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 16, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | R+1.0% | 1000 | ±3.1% |
| June 21, 2024 | 51.6% | 48.4% | R+3.2% | 2029 | ±2.2% |
| June 5, 2024 | 51.9% | 48.1% | R+3.8% | 1671 | ±2.4% |
| May 22, 2024 | 51.1% | 48.9% | R+2.2% | 1081 | ±3.0% |
| April 30, 2024 | 52.7% | 47.3% | R+5.4% | 953 | ±3.2% |
| April 10, 2024 | 52.9% | 47.1% | R+5.8% | 995 | ±3.1% |
| March 22, 2024 | 52.7% | 47.3% | R+5.4% | 1001 | ±3.1% |
| February 26, 2024 | 53.1% | 46.9% | R+6.2% | 999 | ±3.1% |
| January 4, 2024 | 54.0% | 46.0% | R+8.0% | 841 | ±3.4% |
| September 20, 2023 | 51.7% | 48.3% | R+3.4% | 676 | ±3.8% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 1000 likely voters in the United States.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±3.1%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.