National · President · 2024
Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy
43.4%
Donald Trump (R)
41.4%
Joe Biden (D)
15.1%
Robert Kennedy
R+2.0%
Final poll · published July 16, 2024 · 1000 likely voters · MoE ±3.1%
How the race moved (6 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · July 16, 2024
rural
53%
33%
13%
suburban
46%
40%
14%
urban
30%
52%
18%
Donald TrumpJoe BidenRobert Kennedy
The full crosstab table
 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Robert Kennedy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 43.4% | 41.4% | 15.1% |
| Region | rural | 36% | 32% | 53% | 33% | 13% |
| suburban | 38% | 37% | 46% | 40% | 14% | |
| urban | 26% | 32% | 30% | 52% | 18% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 35% | 14% | 33% | 47% | 21% |
| 30-49 | 33% | 30% | 35% | 47% | 18% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 25% | 48% | 39% | 13% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 31% | 53% | 36% | 12% | |
| Gender | F | 28% | 53% | 38% | 48% | 13% |
| M | 72% | 47% | 49% | 34% | 17% | |
| Party | D | 39% | 39% | 6% | 84% | 10% |
| R | 34% | 36% | 88% | 5% | 8% | |
| I | 25% | 23% | 36% | 31% | 33% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 83% | 70% | 53% | 32% | 15% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 14% | 86% | 0% | |
| Latino | 7% | 13% | 31% | 44% | 25% | |
| Income | Low | 17% | 19% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Middle | 50% | 41% | 43% | 40% | 17% | |
| High | 33% | 39% | 45% | 42% | 13% | |
| Education | HS | 29% | 32% | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| Some C | 33% | 23% | 43% | 43% | 14% | |
| BSC+ | 38% | 46% | 34% | 51% | 15% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Biden | Kennedy | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 16, 2024 | 43.4% | 41.4% | 15.1% | R+2.0% | 1000 | ±3.1% |
| June 21, 2024 | 43.7% | 42.1% | 14.2% | R+1.6% | 2192 | ±2.1% |
| June 5, 2024 | 45.4% | 41.6% | 13.1% | R+3.8% | 1775 | ±2.3% |
| May 22, 2024 | 44.9% | 42.1% | 13.0% | R+2.8% | 1153 | ±2.9% |
| April 30, 2024 | 44.4% | 41.2% | 14.4% | R+3.2% | 1025 | ±3.1% |
| April 10, 2024 | 44.0% | 40.7% | 15.3% | R+3.3% | 1083 | ±3.0% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 1000 likely voters in the United States.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±3.1%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.