Hawley vs. Kunce · October 28, 2024
Hawley Leads in Missouri
ActiVote’s October 28, 2024 Missouri Senate poll shows that incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley leads against his Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce by 12.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 6, 2024 and October 27, 2024 with a median field date of October 17.
Please note that in this poll the threshold of 5% for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
Kunce leads among suburban voters, younger voters (18-49), Democrats, and voters with low incomes. Hawley leads among all other groups.
Please note that Missouri does not register voters by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file is much less accurate than in some other states, explaining why both candidates lose over ⅓ of those estimated to be affiliated with their party. These crosstab elements are therefore best ignored in this poll.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Kunce and Hawley among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Missouri, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.
Kunce gets 94% of his core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Hawley gets 92% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Hawley also has a 20% lead among the centrists. Hawley’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Missouri.
Comparisons
In 2022, Republican Eric Schmidt beat his Democratic opponent Trudy Busch Valentine by 13.2%. In 2018, Republican challenger Josh Hawley beat Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill by 5.8%. In our poll of October 2, 2024, Hawley led by 8.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Josh Hawley | Lucas Kunce |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 16% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 15% | 12% | 88% | |
| Center | 16% | 27% | 60% | 40% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 86% | 14% | |
| Right | 18% | 21% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 42% | 44% | 67% | 33% |
| suburban | 38% | 36% | 47% | 53% | |
| urban | 20% | 21% | 51% | 49% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 24% | 14% | 42% | 58% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 30% | 48% | 52% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 25% | 66% | 34% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 30% | 63% | 37% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 53% | 53% | 47% |
| M | 60% | 47% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 41% | 30% | 27% | 73% |
| R | 35% | 52% | 73% | 27% | |
| I | 24% | 18% | 56% | 44% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 91% | 86% | 63% | 37% |
| Black | 4% | 8% | 0% | 100% | |
| Latino | 2% | 3% | 28% | 72% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 23% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 45% | 46% | 62% | 38% | |
| High | 32% | 31% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 34% | 51% | 49% |
| Some C | 17% | 23% | 57% | 43% | |
| BSC+ | 63% | 43% | 60% | 40% |