Missouri · U.S. Senate · 2024
Hawley vs. Kunce
56.3%
Josh Hawley (R)
43.7%
Lucas Kunce (D)
R+12.6%
Final poll · published October 28, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+13.7% Josh Hawley won
Our final poll (R+12.6%) · error:
D+1.1%
How the race moved (2 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
Left
100%
Moderate Left
12%
88%
Center
60%
40%
Moderate Right
86%
14%
Right
99%
Josh HawleyLucas Kunce
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Josh Hawley | Lucas Kunce |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 16% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 15% | 12% | 88% | |
| Center | 16% | 27% | 60% | 40% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 86% | 14% | |
| Right | 18% | 21% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 42% | 44% | 67% | 33% |
| suburban | 38% | 36% | 47% | 53% | |
| urban | 20% | 21% | 51% | 49% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 24% | 14% | 42% | 58% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 30% | 48% | 52% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 25% | 66% | 34% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 30% | 63% | 37% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 53% | 53% | 47% |
| M | 60% | 47% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 41% | 30% | 27% | 73% |
| R | 35% | 52% | 73% | 27% | |
| I | 24% | 18% | 56% | 44% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 91% | 86% | 63% | 37% |
| Black | 4% | 8% | 0% | 100% | |
| Latino | 2% | 3% | 28% | 72% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 23% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 45% | 46% | 62% | 38% | |
| High | 32% | 31% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 34% | 51% | 49% |
| Some C | 17% | 23% | 57% | 43% | |
| BSC+ | 63% | 43% | 60% | 40% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Hawley | Kunce | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2024 | 56.3% | 43.7% | R+12.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.7% | D+1.1% |
| October 1, 2024 | 54.0% | 46.0% | R+8.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.7% | D+5.7% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Missouri.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.