Trump vs. Harris · October 11, 2024
Trump Leads in Missouri
ActiVote’s October 11, 2024 Missouri Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris 14.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 8, 2024 and October 10, 2024 with a median field date of September 24.
Please note that Missouri does not register voters by party affiliation. Therefore, our voter file contains a statistically derived estimate of who is Democrat or Republican. The results in our poll suggest that the estimate for Missouri is not as accurate as we would like, leading to unrealistic percentages like 68% of Democrats voting for Harris and 71% of Republicans voting for Trump. These elements are therefore best ignored.
Harris only leads in urban areas, among youngsters (18-29), Democrats, Blacks, low income voters, and those with some college. Trump leads or ties among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Missouri, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 92% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Trump gets 93% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Trump also has a significant edge among the centrists (+20%). Trump’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Missouri.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Missouri by 15.4% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 18.6%. In our previous poll of August 22nd, Trump led by 17.4%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 11, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 16% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 15% | 15% | 85% | |
| Center | 16% | 27% | 60% | 40% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 21% | 86% | 14% | |
| Right | 18% | 21% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 41% | 44% | 67% | 33% |
| suburban | 38% | 36% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 21% | 21% | 39% | 61% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 29% | 14% | 44% | 56% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 30% | 56% | 44% | |
| 50-64 | 17% | 25% | 50% | 50% | |
| 65+ | 19% | 30% | 71% | 29% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 53% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 61% | 47% | 65% | 35% | |
| Party | D | 44% | 30% | 32% | 68% |
| R | 35% | 52% | 71% | 29% | |
| I | 21% | 18% | 61% | 39% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 93% | 86% | 65% | 35% |
| Black | 3% | 8% | 0% | 100% | |
| Latino | 2% | 3% | 41% | 59% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 23% | 46% | 54% |
| Middle | 43% | 46% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 33% | 31% | 64% | 36% | |
| Education | HS | 19% | 34% | 61% | 39% |
| Some C | 17% | 23% | 46% | 54% | |
| BSC+ | 64% | 43% | 61% | 39% |