Bailey vs. Gross · October 28, 2024
Republicans Lead Comfortably in State-Level Missouri Races
ActiVote’s October 28, 2024 Missouri state-wide polls finds that Republicans lead on average by 12.8% in the four polled races: Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and Treasurer.
The polls were in the field between October 8 and October 27 (median field date of October 18). The polls were among 400 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 4.9%.
Overview
Please note that in each of these polls the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 our polling disclosures.
Please note that Missouri does not register voters by party affiliation. Therefore, our voter file contains a statistically derived estimate of who is Democrat or Republican. The results in our polls suggest that the estimate for Missouri is not as accurate as we would like, leading to unrealistic low percentages of Democrats and Republicans voting for the candidate of their party. These elements are therefore best ignored.
In 2020, Republican Mike Kehoe won his race for Lt. Governor by 19.6%, Republican Jay Ashcroft won his race for Secretary of State by 24.3%, Andrew Bailey won his race for Attorney General by 21.5%, and Scott Fitzpatrick won his race for Treasurer by 21.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Andrew Bailey | Elad Gross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 28% | 16% | 3% | 97% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 15% | 10% | 90% | |
| Center | 15% | 27% | 59% | 41% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 92% | 8% | |
| Right | 17% | 21% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 42% | 44% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 39% | 36% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 19% | 21% | 50% | 50% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 14% | 40% | 60% |
| 30-49 | 43% | 30% | 46% | 54% | |
| 50-64 | 20% | 25% | 65% | 35% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 30% | 70% | 30% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 53% | 56% | 44% |
| M | 61% | 47% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 43% | 30% | 27% | 73% |
| R | 32% | 52% | 73% | 27% | |
| I | 25% | 18% | 62% | 38% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 91% | 86% | 65% | 35% |
| Black | 5% | 8% | 8% | 92% | |
| Latino | 2% | 3% | 27% | 73% | |
| Income | Low | 26% | 23% | 43% | 57% |
| Middle | 41% | 46% | 60% | 40% | |
| High | 33% | 31% | 64% | 36% | |
| Education | HS | 23% | 34% | 50% | 50% |
| Some C | 18% | 23% | 50% | 50% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 43% | 66% | 34% |